Solar projects beat forecasts while wind falls short

By Kathie Zipp Fitch Ratings‘ analysis of rated wind energy projects across EMEA, the U.S. and Latin America, as well as solar photovoltaic (PV) energy projects across EMEA and the U.S., shows electricity production from solar projects has tended to exceed initial independent estimates, while wind projects have more often underperformed against expectations. The more predictable nature of solar power is reflected in our ratings through the lower debt-service cover ratio a solar project generally needs to achieve investment-grade status compared to a wind project.

We compared actual production data from Fitch-rated renewable projects against the initial P50 forecasts (the annual production level the

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